I shared comments with Tala Michel Issa for Arabian Business on the major shifts in fiscal policy, trade, and geopolitics to be expected by investors from the Trump vs Harris showdown in November.
I reminded readers that “global and financial markets in particular, are still pricing in a Trump victory” and markets will “be much more welcoming” of a Trump win versus a Harris win “for obvious fiscal reasons”, with “a lot of the big guys in Silicon Valley already throwing their weight in behind a Trump presidency, not just Elon Musk”.
I expect “a second Trump administration to continue its war on Chinese technology “which will definitely play in favour of US tech.”, and said that “Investors can expect “lesser pressure on energy companies” under Trump versus a Harris administration “which will most likely continue to push very aggressively for renewables”. I also predicted that “the defence sector will benefit from a Harris presidency because any Democratic president would mean “more proxy wars, which is good news for the defence industry.”
On foreign policy and confrontation with China, I commented that “If I were Xi Jinping, I’d prefer to deal with a Trump administration than a Harris administration… Trump will do it in a very Trump way which is in a very open, direct way [of] confrontation.” A Harris administration will continue the confrontation but in an indirect way. “They will offer olive branches when it’s necessary so the situation doesn’t go out of control, but they will discreetly continue the confrontation through proxies which makes it much more difficult to deal with when you are sitting in Beijing”.
But overall, I emphasised that “US-China relations are likely to continue to deteriorate. “I don’t think markets are expecting any improvement regardless of who wins in November, but the situation will be handled very differently [by either candidate.]”
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Picture credits: arabianbusiness.com
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