I was quoted by Tala Michel Issa for Arabian Business in an explainer on the terms of the partial ceasefire agreement in Ukraine reached by the US and Russia.
As Tala described the details of the limited ceasefire agreement reached by the two presidents over a 90 minute phone call on Tuesday, focusing on preserving Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, I emphasised the importance of the balance of power and military momentum being clearly in Russia’s favour in explaining why Putin insisted on a set of conditions for a full ceasefire to be possible: “Ukraine does not have the strategic depth that Russia enjoys, Ukraine doesn’t have the industrial depth that Russia enjoys, and Ukraine doesn’t have the demographic depth that Russia has”.
The question remains whether Zelensky will accept a ceasefire that is only partial for now, while Putin has time on his side and Trump is eager to make as much gradual progress as possible. With Europe being reluctant to abandon military assistance to Ukraine and announcing massive EU-wide defence budgets, it appears very clear that “Ukraine was nothing but a pawn in this conflict from day one, unfortunately, it has been sacrificed.”
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Picture credits: Bloomberg
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