Trump’s tariff plays make for unpredictable partnerships

Thank you to Valentina Pasquali for inviting me to comment for AGBI – Arabian Gulf Business Insight on the pressure by the US on the EU and G7 to apply secondary tariffs on India, and what it means for Gulf nations.

In her article “Trump’s tariff plays make for unpredictable partnerships“, I commented that “there is now lots of pressure on Indian refiners to stop or reduce buying Russian oil and go back to more traditional Gulf suppliers”, adding that “Trump’s request of its G7 allies triggers concerns in GCC states that they too may be “weaponised” by the US as it goes after Russia, China, India or whoever else“.

I also said that GCC economies “are smart enough to understand the US priorities but also what China brings that is of absolute necessity for their diversification and development, so they are able to try to strike a very delicate balance”, but I went on to nuance this picture: “Can they strike that balance every time? There might be some cases where, no, you’re gonna have to make a choice”.

Read the full article here.

Picture credits: Reuters

Nicolas Michelon

Nicolas is a corporate geoeconomics and strategic & business intelligence expert with 25 years of experience in the Asia-Pacific, and more recently in the Gulf and Türkiye. A Managing Partner at Alagan Partners, he advises corporate executives on how to navigate the current geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, mitigate risk and develop prospective scenarios. He is also an Adjunct Professor & Guest Lecturer in geopolitics, geoeconomics and business intelligence at ESCP Business School (France), Galatasaray University (Türkiye), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (Morocco), and Ecole de Guerre Economique (Paris School of Economic Warfare).