What Putin and Trump agreed on Ukraine’s partial ceasefire – All you need to know

I was quoted by Tala Michel Issa for Arabian Business in an explainer on the terms of the partial ceasefire agreement in Ukraine reached by the US and Russia.

As Tala described the details of the limited ceasefire agreement reached by the two presidents over a 90 minute phone call on Tuesday, focusing on preserving Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, I emphasised the importance of the balance of power and military momentum being clearly in Russia’s favour in explaining why Putin insisted on a set of conditions for a full ceasefire to be possible: “Ukraine does not have the strategic depth that Russia enjoys, Ukraine doesn’t have the industrial depth that Russia enjoys, and Ukraine doesn’t have the demographic depth that Russia has”.

The question remains whether Zelensky will accept a ceasefire that is only partial for now, while Putin has time on his side and Trump is eager to make as much gradual progress as possible. With Europe being reluctant to abandon military assistance to Ukraine and announcing massive EU-wide defence budgets, it appears very clear that “Ukraine was nothing but a pawn in this conflict from day one, unfortunately, it has been sacrificed.”

Read the full article here.

Picture credits: Bloomberg

Nicolas Michelon

Nicolas is a corporate geoeconomics and strategic & business intelligence expert with 25 years of experience in the Asia-Pacific, and more recently in the Gulf and Türkiye. A Managing Partner at Alagan Partners, he advises corporate executives on how to navigate the current geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, mitigate risk and develop prospective scenarios. He is also an Adjunct Professor & Guest Lecturer in geopolitics, geoeconomics and business intelligence at ESCP Business School (France), Galatasaray University (Türkiye), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (Morocco), and Ecole de Guerre Economique (Paris School of Economic Warfare).