Trump’s Saudi-brokered Russia-Ukraine ceasefire could leave Zelensky with no good options

I shared comments with Tala Michel Issa for Arabian Business on the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal being negotiated by Trump and Putin in Saudi Arabia.

I reminded readers that “Ukraine does not have the strategic depth that Russia enjoys, Ukraine doesn’t have the industrial depth that Russia enjoys, and Ukraine does not have the demographic depth that Russia has“, making it apparent that “Donald Trump has decided that Ukraine cannot win“.

Trump’s insistence for Zelensky to agree to a critical mineral deal stems from the fact that, from Trump’s perspective, “the US has been paying too much to support Ukraine without receiving adequate returns. Trump’s approach to international relations consistently seeks net gains—whether in trade, finance, or economic power.“

About Saudi Arabia’s involvement as a peace broker, I commented that “It positions Saudi Arabia as a neutral actor, which means it increases its power overseas. It enables it to trade, to invest pretty much anywhere it wants, without carrying the stigma of belonging to one side or the other.” This quest for a balanced, neutral strategic stance is illustrated by the Kingdom not formally joining BRICS yet, in spite of being formally invited earlier last year.

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Picture credits: Reuters

Nicolas Michelon

Nicolas is a corporate geoeconomics and strategic & business intelligence expert with 25 years of experience in the Asia-Pacific, and more recently in the Gulf and Türkiye. A Managing Partner at Alagan Partners, he advises corporate executives on how to navigate the current geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, mitigate risk and develop prospective scenarios. He is also an Adjunct Professor & Guest Lecturer in geopolitics, geoeconomics and business intelligence at ESCP Business School (France), Galatasaray University (Türkiye), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (Morocco), and Ecole de Guerre Economique (Paris School of Economic Warfare).