Trump’s return could signal new path for Israel, Gaza, Lebanon crisis

As Donald Trump was confirmed as the next US President, I shared comments with Tala Michel Issa for Arabian Business on what a 2nd Trump administration could mean for the geopolitics of the Middle East.

I started by reminding readers that “Trump doesn’t like geopolitics. He prefers geo-economics”, anticipating that he would most likely try to end or tone down as many proxy wars as possible as “Wars are bad for business”.

With extremely high chances that a peace plan for Ukraine will be proposed by Trump and accepted by Russia in 2025, I anticipated that “the United States would ask for a favour in return from Russia, and that favor concerns the Middle East – that could be lowered Russian support for Iran”.

“Trump will most likely try to simplify the foreign policy equation that the United States has to deal with”. “Less proxy wars… so that the United States can refocus its attention on the confrontation with China.”

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Picture credits: Reuters

Nicolas Michelon

Nicolas is a corporate geoeconomics and strategic & business intelligence expert with 25 years of experience in the Asia-Pacific, and more recently in the Gulf and Türkiye. A Managing Partner at Alagan Partners, he advises corporate executives on how to navigate the current geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, mitigate risk and develop prospective scenarios. He is also an Adjunct Professor & Guest Lecturer in geopolitics, geoeconomics and business intelligence at ESCP Business School (France), Galatasaray University (Türkiye), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (Morocco), and Ecole de Guerre Economique (Paris School of Economic Warfare).