Gulf walks trade tightrope amid Trump’s tariff volatility

As the 2025 BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro is just ending, I shared comments with Valentina Pasquali for AGBI – Arabian Gulf Business Insight on Trump’s latest threat to impose an additional 10% tariff on all economies collaborating with BRICS “anti-American policies“.

I pointed out that the wording of the warning remains vague as to what constitutes “aligning with anti-American policies“, commenting that “It is likely this was on purpose, to retain flexibility into actually taking action going forward“.

Commenting on the timing and the context of this latest announcement, less than 2 months after Trump’s deal-rich tour of the Gulf and days after announcing a trade deal with VIetnam, I said that “the president’s strategy is to keep everyone on their toes at all times. You may be a friend today, you may be an adversary tomorrow. Things are extremely fluid“.

Equally worth noting was Xi Jinping’s absence from the Summit, a first since his ascent to power in 2012. I noted that “It was the first time Xi missed the meeting, perhaps a sign of internal divisions that Trump may be looking to exploit as he battles attempts to redraw the rules of global commerce and finance away from the United States and the dollar“.

Finally, I commented that “GCC economies are in the best possible position relative to, let’s say, the European Union, certainly China, or even India. But being in a good position doesn’t mean getting off the hook completely.”

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Picture credits: Reuters / Carlos Barria