Gulf nations poised as ‘safe zones’ amid Trump 2.0 trade reset, but gains may be limited

I shared comments with Tala Michel Issa for Arabian Business on the expected impact of Trump 2.0 trade policies for the Gulf economies.

As much as the GCC will generally be able to capitalise on its dual partnerships with the US and China, I warned that “expectations of major gains should be tempered.“

“When it comes to the Gulf and the impact on supply chains, whether that could benefit Gulf states like the UAE or KSA, I think it’s going to be marginal from now on”. “The main disruption of supply chain has already happened in the first Trump administration.”

I also suggested that “the surprise effect of Trump’s first-term trade disruptions has passed“. “We know exactly what he’s going to do, he’s going to go back to doing what he did before, he’s going to announce it, that he’s going to get back to it and crank it up a notch”.

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Picture credits: Arabian Business

Nicolas Michelon

Nicolas is a corporate geoeconomics and strategic & business intelligence expert with 25 years of experience in the Asia-Pacific, and more recently in the Gulf and Türkiye. A Managing Partner at Alagan Partners, he advises corporate executives on how to navigate the current geopolitical and geoeconomic environment, mitigate risk and develop prospective scenarios. He is also an Adjunct Professor & Guest Lecturer in geopolitics, geoeconomics and business intelligence at ESCP Business School (France), Galatasaray University (Türkiye), University Mohammed VI Polytechnic (Morocco), Ecole de Guerre Economique (Paris School of Economic Warfare) and the International University of Monaco.